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Peoria Clusters 2.0

The Peoria Project began with a large scale, multi-mode survey focused on voters’ underlying values frames rather than demographics. The survey questions drew from research in social and behavioral science and focused on the beliefs that frame our identities and choices. We included questions about race, gender, moral foundations, social relationships, and perspectives on authority. And we combined the new survey data with more than 1.5 million historical poll records on issue and values questions collected by Catalist partners.

 

Using cluster analysis, we grouped voters into nine segments based on their shared values — all intended to provide a richer way to understand the different threads that make up the American tapestry than is normally used in approaching and producing advocacy communications.

 

In advance of the 2020 cycle, Catalist expanded the project by including new questions about religious tolerance and respondents’ beliefs about their personal efficacy, which is to say, their ability to change their economic and social outcomes by their own actions. These additions further refine the picture of the American electorate.

 

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Clusters by Population in each County
Largest Cluster in each Congressional District
Peoria 2.0 Cluster Distribution
Super Seculars
12% of the Population
Values

Values
• Progressive
• Open to cultures and religions different from their own
• Do not feel a connection between their values and the rural way of life
• Anti-authoritarian



Key Demographics

• Young: 46% are under 34 and 84% are under 49
• More likely to be college educated

Values
• Progressive
• Open to cultures and religions different from their own
• Do not feel a connection between their values and the rural way of life
• Anti-authoritarian



Key Demographics

• Young: 46% are under 34 and 84% are under 49
• More likely to be college educated

• Progressive
• Open to cultures and religions different from their own
• Do not feel a connection between their values and the rural way of life
• Anti-authoritarian

Key Demographics

Key Demographics
• Young: 46% are under 34 and 84% are under 49
• More likely to be college educated

Key Demographics
• Young: 46% are under 34 and 84% are under 49
• More likely to be college educated

• Young: 46% are under 34 and 84% are under 49
• More likely to be college educated

68% likely voted for Clinton in 2016
Civic Faithful
14% of the Population
Values

Values


• Believe in American institutions
• Have a high level of social trust - even in the media, but not Wall Street
• More likely to be engaged in their community, membership organizations, and unions

Values


• Believe in American institutions
• Have a high level of social trust - even in the media, but not Wall Street
• More likely to be engaged in their community, membership organizations, and unions

• Believe in American institutions
• Have a high level of social trust - even in the media, but not Wall Street
• More likely to be engaged in their community, membership organizations, and unions

Key Demographics

Key Demographics


• More likely to be college educated
• More likely to be financially secure
• 61% are over 65

Key Demographics


• More likely to be college educated
• More likely to be financially secure
• 61% are over 65

• More likely to be college educated
• More likely to be financially secure
• More likely to vote than other progressive clusters
• 61% are over 65

68% likely voted for Clinton in 2016
Family and Future
11% of the Population
Values

Values
• Low trust in institutions, trust has eroded after lack of focus on their needs
• Regular religious service attendees
• Concerned about the fate of the traditional family
• Believe that human nature is good

Values
• Low trust in institutions, trust has eroded after lack of focus on their needs
• Regular religious service attendees
• Concerned about the fate of the traditional family
• Believe that human nature is good

• Low trust in institutions, trust has eroded after lack of focus on their needs
• Regular religious service attendees
• Concerned about the fate of the traditional family
• Believe that human nature is good

Key Demographics

Key Demographics
• 69% are African American
• 40% did not vote in 2016

Key Demographics
• 69% are African American
• 40% did not vote in 2016

• 69% are African American
• 40% did not vote in 2016

54% likely voted for Clinton in 2016 – but 40% did not vote at all
Struggling Skeptics
14% of the Population
Values

Values


• Independent and suspicious of institutions like political parties and Wall Street
• Favor individual rights over the collective
• Do not feel threatened by globalization
• Believe in value of college education

Values


• Independent and suspicious of institutions like political parties and Wall Street
• Favor individual rights over the collective
• Do not feel threatened by globalization
• Believe in value of college education

• Independent and suspicious of institutions like political parties and Wall Street
• Favor individual rights over the collective
• Do not feel threatened by globalization
• Believe in value of college education

Key Demographics

Key Demographics


• Young: 65% are under 34
• Likely to be economically sensitive
• Most racially and ethnically diverse
• 55% did not vote in 2016

Key Demographics


• Young: 65% are under 34
• Likely to be economically sensitive
• Most racially and ethnically diverse
• 55% did not vote in 2016

• Young: 65% are under 34
• Likely to be economically sensitive
• Most racially and ethnically diverse
• 55% did not vote in 2016

55% did not vote in 2016
Disheartened but Determined
17% of the Population
Values

Values
• Favor individual rights over the collective
• Very little partisan alignment
• Low levels of social trust
• Pessimistic about their economic future

Values
• Favor individual rights over the collective
• Very little partisan alignment
• Low levels of social trust
• Pessimistic about their economic future

• Favor individual rights over the collective
• Very little partisan alignment
• Low levels of social trust
• Pessimistic about their economic future

Key Demographics

Key Demographics
• Young: 40% are under 34 and 70% are under 49
• Equally suburban and rural
• Higher economic sensitivity
• 54% did not vote in 2016

Key Demographics
• Young: 40% are under 34 and 70% are under 49
• Equally suburban and rural
• Higher economic sensitivity
• 54% did not vote in 2016

• Young: 40% are under 34 and 70% are under 49
• Equally suburban and rural
• Higher economic sensitivity
• 54% did not vote in 2016

54% did not vote in 2016
Nostalgic Traditionalists
6% of the Population
Values

Values
• Many union households
• Believe in established order: government, religion, family
• Offended by anthem protests
• Anti-Wall Street
• Opposed to immigration

Values
• Many union households
• Believe in established order: government, religion, family
• Offended by anthem protests
• Anti-Wall Street
• Opposed to immigration

• Many union households
• Believe in established order: government, religion, family
• Offended by anthem protests
• Anti-Wall Street
• Opposed to immigration

Key Demographics

Key Demographics
• Older: 72% over 50, few under 35
• Lowest educational attainment of any segment
• Most rural of the segments
• 50% did not vote in 2016

Key Demographics
• Older: 72% over 50, few under 35
• Lowest educational attainment of any segment
• Most rural of the segments
• 50% did not vote in 2016

• Older: 72% over 50, few under 35
• Lowest educational attainment of any segment
• Most rural of the segments
• 50% did not vote in 2016

50% did not vote in 2016
Merit and Market
7% of the Population
Values

Values
• Free market fiscal conservatives
• Most favorable to LGBT rights among conservatives
• Fewer ties to the cultural Right, view the NRA less favorably than other conservative groups
• Least threatened by globalization

Values
• Free market fiscal conservatives
• Most favorable to LGBT rights among conservatives
• Fewer ties to the cultural Right, view the NRA less favorably than other conservative groups
• Least threatened by globalization

• Free market fiscal conservatives
• Most favorable to LGBT rights among conservatives
• Fewer ties to the cultural Right, view the NRA less favorably than other conservative groups
• Least threatened by globalization

Key Demographics

Key Demographics
• Mostly married men
• Youngest of the conservative segments
• Highest educational attainment
• 63% supported Trump in 2016

Key Demographics
• Mostly married men
• Youngest of the conservative segments
• Highest educational attainment
• 63% supported Trump in 2016

• Mostly married men
• Youngest of the conservative segments
• Highest educational attainment
• 63% supported Trump in 2016

63% voted for Trump in 2016
Concerned Conservatives
10% of the Population
Values

Values
• Concerned about the fate of the traditional family
• Strongly believe in capitalism
• Believe colleges have a negative influence
• Opposed to abortion rights
• Hostile to immigration

Values
• Concerned about the fate of the traditional family
• Strongly believe in capitalism
• Believe colleges have a negative influence
• Opposed to abortion rights
• Hostile to immigration

• Concerned about the fate of the traditional family
• Strongly believe in capitalism
• Believe colleges have a negative influence
• Opposed to abortion rights
• Hostile to immigration

Key Demographics

Key Demographics
• Mostly married women
• Older: half over age 65
• Almost half rural
• 79% supported Trump in 2016

Key Demographics
• Mostly married women
• Older: half over age 65
• Almost half rural
• 79% supported Trump in 2016

• Mostly married women
• Older: half over age 65
• Almost half rural

Trump's base: 79% voted for him in 2016
Proud Providers
8% of the Population
Values

Values
• Favor individual rights over the collective
• Strongly believe in capitalism
• Optimistic about their economic future
• Significant concern about normalization of LGBT families
• Concern about traditional role of men in family

Values
• Favor individual rights over the collective
• Strongly believe in capitalism
• Optimistic about their economic future
• Significant concern about normalization of LGBT families
• Concern about traditional role of men in family

• Favor individual rights over the collective
• Strongly believe in capitalism
• Optimistic about their economic future
• Significant concern about normalization of LGBT families
• Concern about traditional role of men in family

Key Demographics

Key Demographics
• Mostly married men
• Older: 75% over 50
• Almost half rural
• 84% supported Trump in 2016

Key Demographics
• Mostly married men
• Older: 75% over 50
• Almost half rural
• 84% supported Trump in 2016

• Mostly married men
• Older: 75% over 50
• Almost half rural

Trump's base: 84% voted for him in 2016
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